The SAWS takes a look at the trajectory of tropical storm Cheneso and whether it poses a threat to South Africa. Image: NASA/ South African Weather Service
Tropical storm Cheneso is classified as a severe tropical storm; the SAWS gives clarity on whether it is a threat to South Africa…
By: Michelle Swart
The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has clarified whether tropical storm Cheneso poses a threat to South African shores.
For most of this week, Cheneso has rotated aimlessly in the eastern part of the Mozambique Channel off the west coast of Madagascar, with little overall system movement.
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AT 2:00, the tropical storm was located at 21.0 South and 42.0 East at 02:00 and was moving slowly south-west at 9 km/h.
It had an estimated mean pressure of 982 hPa.
The latest Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models and guidance from Reunion Island’s Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) indicate that “Cheneso” will continue to move slowly southwest today, 28 January.
Cheneso is classified as a severe tropical storm.
It has sustained winds of 89 to 118 km/h around the core that are expected to be quite damaging.
Near the “Cheneso” system, seas in the 4-6 meter range are expected.
The system is expected to intensify, at least temporarily, into a Tropical Cyclone with sustained winds of 118-166 km/h.
The system should continue to display a well-defined “eye”.
Given the current guidelines for Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, the SAWS is confident that this system will have no direct impact on South Africa.
There is a high level of confidence that Cheneso will not deviate significantly from its currently predicted orbit.
It will begin a general faster south-easterly motion on Sunday, 29 January, and Monday, 30 January.
A so-called “poleward and acceleration track” is expected, allowing the system to transition into extratropical waters of the southwestern Indian Ocean.
The SAWS continues to monitor tropical storm Cheneso.
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